Premier League preview 2010/11 part 1

With the international friendlies out of the way (probably not to be discussed again until the first qualifying matches take place) it’s now time to turn our attentions toward club football once again, so here is the Official CDB Pod English Premier League Preview 2010/11, part one. Part two coming tomorrow.

ARSENAL

Arsenal are a tough team to judge this season. At the end of the last campaign it was pretty obvious that Arsene Wenger needed to invest in at least one good centre-half, holding midfielder, centre-forward and goalkeeper – compare to what he’s actually done so far and you can only say for sure that one of those objectives has been achieved, namely Bordeaux striker Marouane Chamakh on a free. Chamakh is an excellent acquisition, especially for nothing, the type of strong forward player who should add a dimension to Arsenal’s attack that has been missing for several years. However the other problems still remain. Manuel Almunia is not a sufficiently good keeper for a club of Arsenal’s aspirations, and Wenger’s refusal to scrape together the surely-not-too-large amounts of cash to prize 37-year-old Mark Schwarzer away from Fulham is a little bizarre. Laurent Koscielny may have arrived from Lorient but both William Gallas and Mikael Silvestre have left at the end of their contracts, so further strength at centre-back is clearly needed. That said, the likes of Alex Song, Carlos Vela, and Samir Nasri look to be finally delivering on their promise and that may be enough to build on the good starts that Arsenal haven’t quite kept going for long enough in past seasons. Verdict:2nd

ASTON VILLA

The period of Aston Villa knocking on the door of the top five looks to be over. Owner Randy Lerner is clearly balking at the fact that the considerable amounts of money he’s already put into the club aren’t nearly enough to actually break into the Champions League reckoning, and inspirational manager Martin O’Neill finally lost his patience with Villa’s slide towards feeder-club status and resigned just a couple of days ago. Reports suggest O’Neill’s attitude towards the wage bill may have been a little cavalier, but it’s entirely understandable how frustrating it must be to do so well for consecutive seasons and, at the end of each, have your best player sold in an embarrassingly public drawn-out transfer saga, as happened to Gareth Barry and is currently happening to James Milner. With his as-yet unknown successor surely tasked with reducing the wage bill, I wouldn’t expect to see much in the way of reinforcement at Villa Park before the end of the transfer window, and coupled with question marks over the motivations of Ashley Young and possibly other players, it looks like they’ll be getting left behind by the teams surrounding them. Brad Friedel and Stephen Warnock remain key figures. Verdict: 10th

BIRMINGHAM CITY

There’s no doubt the Blues punched above their weight last time around and are unlikely to finish quite so strongly again, especially with Joe Hart having returned to Man City, but Alex McLeish’s men should have enough to avoid being caught in a relegation battle. Ben Foster is a clever piece of business to replace Hart, a man hungry to prove himself after stagnating slightly on the Man United bench and establish himself as Hart’s understudy for England. In Scott Dann and Roger Johnson they boast a sterling central defensive pairing, too. The problems come in squad depth further up the field – on a good day new beanpole striker Nikola Zigic is very good, but on a bad day he can be prize pants, and backups like Kevin Phillips, Cameron Jerome and Marcus Bent hardly inspire confidence. Lee Bowyer will struggle to have as good a season as last in the midfield and much may rely on the creative influence of James McFadden to get things done in front of goal. Verdict: 14th

BLACKBURN ROVERS

Well, nobody wanted it to happen, but it looks like Sam Allardyce is successfully reproducing his old Bolton side at Ewood Park, warts and all. Blackburn are perfecting the art of defending stoutly for eighty minutes, then shoving centre-back Chris Samba up front and lumping the ball up to him for somebody else to bundle it in when it bounces off the Congolese colossus. They’ll be perfectly fine again this season – Paul Robinson has remembered he’s half-decent, Samba and Ryan Nelsen have both experience and expertise at the back, and will be supplemented by emerging 18-year-old Phil Jones. In midfield, young Steven N’Zonzi is attracting the attentions of Arsenal and for good reason. Goals are the problem and they are looking like relying heavily on Nikola Kalinic, who has talent but is still settling into English football, and Morten Gamst Pedersen’s free-kicks. Will stay well clear of trouble but won’t bother the Europe-chasing pack. Verdict: 11th

BLACKPOOL

Blackpool are going down as quickly as Ian Holloway can coin a metaphor. They look to have taken the ultimately quite sensible business decision on not frittering all their promotion money away on frantically trying to boost a squad several levels below Premier League ability and instead simply taking the Sky money and parachute payments for relegation to solidify their status as a Championship team. It may not be exciting as a neutral to see Blackpool with good odds of beating Derby’s wooden spoon record, but the achievement of even reaching the playoffs with this squad was miraculous enough. Their only player who you would say is of sufficient quality is playmaker Charlie Adam, who scored sixteen from midfield last season and was the main driving force behind their late push to Wembley glory, and I think it’s highly likely he will be snapped up on the cheap by a relegation rival in January when Blackpool’s fate should already be all but sealed. It’s a shame, because I love Holloway and I think it’s great to see Blackpool in the top tier, but their fans should look to the possibility of Premier League survival in three or four years’ time instead. Verdict: 20th

BOLTON WANDERERS

Owen Coyle is starting to have some success getting his Bolton side to play his desired attractive football, and Bolton should be comfortably clear of relegation questions. They boast a better-than-solid spine in Jussi Jaaskelainen (consistently one of the league’s best keepers for the past ten years), Gary Cahill, Fabrice Muamba and official dirtiest-ever Premier League player, captain Kevin Davies, and in Lee Chung-Yong and snazzy free transfer Martin Petrov there will be plenty of creativity in midfield. Weaknesses, though, will be scoring goals and top-class opposition wingers – up front, Davies, Ivan Klasnic and Johan Elmander are all the goal-shy kind and Gretar Steinsson and Jlloyd Samuel are far from inspiring full-backs. Verdict: 13th

CHELSEA

Chelsea mount the defence of their title in reasonably good shape and look favourites to win again this year, but they do look slightly weaker than they did twelve months ago. For one thing, all their key players – Lampard, Drogba, Cech, Terry, Ashley Cole – are all another year older and one has to wonder when the decline will become evident. For another thing, Ricardo Carvalho’s departure to Real Madrid does not look like it is going to be offset by the signing of a centre-back of equivalent quality. Reports are that at least one of Brazilians Neymar and Ramires are to arrive for in the region of £25 million each, possibly both, and given the slight scaling back in recent years of Roman Abramovich’s spending, that seems unlikely to be followed by a further big signing. That could be crucial, as while Alex stepped up last season to become a more consistent performer, Carvalho was a big part of John Terry’s success for the club, who made the captain look much better than he really is. This could, and probably should, turn out to be the season in which Terry gets dropped from the first team. Other news is good news, though, and Michael Essien’s return will be a big boost to manager Carlo Ancelotti (although at this rate you have to ask when he’ll be injured next). So, too, will the exchange deal bringing Yossi Benayoun to Stamford Bridge in Joe Cole’s place. Benayoun should fit in well as an impact substitute, part of the deepest squad in the league. Between them, Drogba, Anelka and Lampard should score the goals required to fire Chelsea back to the top. Verdict: 1st

EVERTON

David Moyes has done well to tie down key man Mikel Arteta to a new contract, with Steven Pienaar expected to follow suit in the best piece of transfer business to come out of Goodison Park this summer. Everton’s midfield is right up there with the best in the league, with Arteta and Pienaar supported by Marouane Fellaini, Jack Rodwell, Tim Cahill, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov and Leon Osman. Tim Howard is reliably excellent in goal and if Louis Saha can stay fit he should be able to blend well with pacy new second striker Magaye Gueye. Jermaine Beckford is probably a gamble unlikely to pay off at this level, though. Verdict: 6th

FULHAM

It’s important that Mark Hughes fends off Arsenal’s approaches for evergreen Mark Schwarzer, because without him Fulham would be at risk of being given a slight reality check after the dizzy heights of last season’s Europa League adventure. The motivational powers of Roy Hodgson cannot be underestimated and I don’t really see Hughes as having similar managerial talent – he’s yet to really prove much of anything at club level. Fulham will be solid in defence (new signing Philippe Senderos notwithstanding) and full of effort in attack and will need Bobby Zamora to repeat his exceptional form of last season. If Hughes has time to spend the money that Mohammed Al Fayed says is available to him, then a forward or winger with pace should be on the agenda to freshen up the front line of journeymen. Progress from last year’s finish would be a good achievement. Verdict: 12th

LIVERPOOL

I’ve talked already about Liverpool and not much has changed since then. It’s surprising that Javier Mascherano hasn’t moved on yet but the offer from Inter hasn’t materialised and Barcelona aren’t as interested in the deal as Mascherano himself is. He is surely on his way out, though, now that Christian Poulsen has signed from Juventus. Poulsen’s a decent player but not in the same league as Mascherano – clearly a replacement signing for a player whose transfer fee is not expected to be reinvested in the market. With the takeover saga advancing at the pace of continental drift, it looks set to be another disappointing season at Anfield. Verdict: 7th

Capello’s half-hearted revamp betrays confusion in England setup

Forty-four days since their humbling exit from the World Cup, England begin their preparations for Euro 2012 qualifying tomorrow with a friendly against Hungary hoping for a bright new start, but as Fabio Capello admits he doesn’t know what to do to get the members of that ill-fated jaunt to South Africa to perform for him, there are worrying signs that this is not going to be the complete overhaul of the squad that is required.

Apart from the huge amounts of money they would have had to spend to sack him, the FA must have insisted to Capello that a condition of his retention as England manager would be to drop the ageing players who have let the national team down for many years and bring in a new generation of young players to mould together in anticipation of Poland and Ukraine in two years’ time and ultimately Brazil in four. That, however, does not seem to have really happened. Although pint-sized Arsenal prodigy Jack Wilshere has been fast-tracked into the squad alongside his club team-mate Kieran Gibbs, the bulk of the squad is still made up of the same old players, and the expected starting eleven for tomorrow’s game makes for depressing reading.

The luckiest man to still have a place is John Terry. Never a truly world-class defender, Terry’s brave attitude has complemented well the likes of Ricardo Carvalho and William Gallas at Chelsea over the years, but he is now cripplingly short of pace, a huge deficiency for an international centre-back, and after his rather pathetic attempted mutiny at the World Cup it is very surprising that a man of Capello’s supposed ruthlessness has stuck with him. In two years’ time Terry will be 31. If you think he’s slow now, just imagine how much of a liability he’ll be then. It’s not as if he’s even been one of the most outstanding English centre-backs at club level over the past two seasons or so. Having fully earned their call-ups to the squad, Everton’s Phil Jagielka and Tottenham’s Michael Dawson should be the two to start in that position for the opening qualifier against Bulgaria.

It’s not just Terry who should have been jettisoned, too. While they still have the ability to contribute towards the 2012 campaign, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry all need a wake-up call. They should have been told to go back to their clubs and put in performances to win back their places and prove that they should be trusted again. It’s not as if this is the first opportunity that these players have had to bounce back from a poor summer tournament. A new, harsher approach is required to seriously tackle the complacency that has become rampant in the minds of these players, who have long since succumbed to believing their own hype.

In keeping faith with them for this first new squad, Capello has betrayed his lack of confidence in the younger generation who have been knocking on the door. If he really thought that they were good enough to be brought through into the first team then he should have followed the example of Laurent Blanc. The new France coach, surfing an Obama-like wave of optimism from the fans for simply not being his predecessor, took the clever step of ‘suspending’ every member of his country’s World Cup squad for their friendly against Norway, calling up thirteen uncapped players and all but one under thirty years old. They have been given the initiative in the build-up for their qualification campaign and the disappointments from South Africa have to do the work of winning back their places if they are worth it. That Gerrard, Lampard, Barry and Terry are all set to start against Hungary shows that in reality the call-ups of Wilshere, Gibbs, and the like are little more than a token effort to appease those calling for a more radical overhaul.

There are also questions being asked of Capello’s man-management. This is most apparent in the case of Robert Green. Dropped from the original squad while Terry et al remained, the West Ham keeper was overlooked when first Paul Robinson petulantly retired from international duty because he didn’t want to be a backup, and then when Ben Foster had to pull out through injury. Scott Loach’s emergency promotion from the Under-21 side makes sense, as he is first choice there and at Watford in the Championship, and although he is far from the finished article, he can reasonably be expected to push for a regular place in the squad in a couple of years’ time. That he has been joined by 22-year-old Frankie Fielding, Blackburn’s fourth choice whose last competitive game was against Barnet on loan with Rochdale in League 2, is a pretty severe kick in the teeth for Green. That Green has been so obviously scapegoated for one mistake that arguably was less embarrassing than John Terry’s positioning against Germany and such like seems more than a little off on Capello’s part, as if he thinks that the rest of the squad have chosen to blame Green rather than seriously face up to their own deficiencies, and that he is desperately trying to indulge that childish belief to try and get them to perform by any means. Fielding may have promise but nobody can pretend that he is anywhere near Green’s level. This inconsistency in punishment for the South African failure reflects very badly on Capello in my view.

There are plenty of players in the squad who deserve to be there, forming the core of the upcoming qualifying campaign. Jagielka, Dawson, Joe Hart, Gary Cahill, James Milner, Ashley Young, Adam Johnson, and Bobby Zamora have all earned the right to be where they now are. But there are still glaring omissions (Jack Rodwell and Lee Cattermole are two who stand out) and those who have been called up may feel undermined by not being given the chance to start at Wembley tomorrow. This is not the bright new dawn that England fans have been hoping for, and it seems increasingly clear that Capello may not be capable of ushering it in after all.

Day 11: I Wouldn’t Tell The Dear Leader If I Were You…

Portugal 7 – 0 North Korea

Chile 1 – 0 Switzerland

Spain 2 – 0 Honduras

The second phase of group matches came to a close tonight with things looking pretty clear in one group and wide open in another, although nobody has actually confirmed qualification yet in either case. Unfortunately all three games turned out to be mostly one-sided affairs, too.

This was most evident in the opening game, the final lunchtime kick-off where Portugal broke North Korea’s willpower to create a pretty depressing seven-goal rout. Watching the first twenty-five minutes, you wouldn’t have seen it coming, with the North Koreans having the better of the earlier stages, every bit as resistant in defense as they were against Brazil but now with some added adventure, getting forward with more purpose than the Portuguese. The captain Hong Yong-Jo was particularly prominent, getting involved with most of the North Korean play in the final third where star striker Jong Tae-Se was less visible, unable to get the better of Ricardo Carvalho and Bruno Alves. As soon as the first goal went in, though, a simple finish by Raul Meireles from an incisive Tiago pass, their determination was visibly weakened, and this only got worse in the second half. They had been lucky to hang on to 1-0 at half-time but it only took Simao five minutes to extend the lead, and then the underdogs were completely lost. Probably feeling a little beaten down by the driving rain and plentiful Portuguese support, their dogged determination and organisation in defense simply melted away as tiredness crept in quite quickly. The goals became easier and easier to come by for Portugal, particularly using the avenue of Fabio Coentrao hurtling up from left-back, who had a very good game, making mincemeat of Cha Jong-Hyok.

Portugal haven’t confirmed their qualification but now are clear favourites to get through, because the Ivory Coast will realistically need to at least match this scoreline on Friday and hope that Brazil, who are already through and will be able to rest a few players, do a similar job on Portugal. The latter isn’t that unlikely, actually – Portugal just aren’t all that, especially in midfield, and this result should not be taken out of proportion – but it’s tough to see the Ivorians producing such a concerted, focused battering ram of an attacking performance. They, perhaps above all other teams here at the tournament (except perhaps England), are the most prone to producing attacking displays that do the job but are not truly representative of their potential power. North Korea are out but I think we can safely say that this result will not go down well at home and they will be under pressure to get at least a point in the last game, so I have trouble imagining the Ivory Coast scoring a great many. Their fate seems sealed.

There were fewer goals in the second match but it was far more compelling viewing than Portugal’s victory – Chile eventually secured a 1-0 victory over Switzerland, who, with ten men for most of the game following Valon Behrami’s entirely preventable red card for a raised arm in the face, parked the bus for as long as possible and nearly got away with it too. There was only ever going to be one winner but it took a long time to get there, with Chile not quite being able to take full advantage of their total dominance. Returning striker Humberto Suazo looked short of match fitness and sharpness and was duly hauled off at half-time. Alexis Sanchez was again impressive with his pace and trickery but also showed the same lack of a killer touch as he had against Honduras, save the effort that he had rightly disallowed for offside. The standout attacker was Jean Beausejour, who put in several testing crosses from the left but that nobody was able to pick up on properly. The breakthrough came with about fifteen minutes to go when Esteban Paredes, the substitute striker who went on to miss two great and pretty easy chances to take the game beyond doubt, whipped in a lovely cross from the byline and CSKA Moscow winger Mark Gonzalez headed it well at an angle that prevented Stephan Lichtsteiner from blocking it lest he end up handling the ball. Chile definitely deserved to win but will be worried with the quality of their finishing. Chances may not come quite so easily against Spain in the final game.

A lot was taken away from the game by its frustratingly over-officious referee, Khalil Al Ghamdi, who set the tone by booking Suazo in the first minute and blew his whistle for pretty much any contact whatsoever. He ended up issuing nine yellow cards and a red, some of which, shall we say, were more deserved than others. Despite his clear desire to take full control of the game, Al Ghamdi seemed to be losing it as on more than one occasion the game threatened to descend into a brawl as Swiss and Chilean players clashed preparing for set pieces. It wasn’t easy on the eye, that’s for sure. Switzerland, for their part, weren’t great, even accounting for Behrami’s dismissal. The defense did well, with Diego Benaglio looking assured in goal and Stephane Grichting putting everything into his performance, but the midfield struggled to stop Chile’s dominance of posession in just the situation where Gokhan Inler should have been at his best. Blaise N’kufo, hero in the Spain victory, just couldn’t get anything done alone up front (poor captain Alexander Frei, just returned from injury, was withdrawn after the red card) and was most involved in the game when trying to defend set pieces. They have to give Honduras as big a thwacking as possible on Friday to maximise their chances of qualification but I just don’t see that many goals in them. They’re a 1-0 side built for exactly the situation that Spain put them in, and I think they could struggle to do the task required of them against the Hondurans.

Speaking of Honduras, they’ll be pretty chuffed to only have lost 2-0 having been outclassed in every department by a much more confident Spain, and particularly David Villa. The Barcelona forward showed his class by scoring unquestionably the goal of the tournament so far, beating two men as he ran in from the left flank and using the defender’s incoming tackle to slide down and power the ball past the grasp of Noel Valladares. He doubled his tally just a few minutes into the second half with another great shot, albeit one that took a crucial slight deflection on its way in from just outside the area. He seemed in such potent form that it was quite a shock to see him put the ball comfortably wide from the penalty spot after the impressive Jesus Navas was brought down in the area, having sent the keeper the wrong way.

Spain as a whole were very good, although still short of top form. The introduction of Navas from the start gave them a little more flexibility with greater crossing ability. Fernando Torres, the main target for such crosses through the middle, was a bit off-colour, though, obviously not yet at full match fitness following his injury, but Xabi Alonso and Sergio Ramos did well. Xavi got himself into great positions and passed well as usual but should have been more willing to shoot when it was one. One chance towards the end of the second half could have been taken if he’d had the drive to hit first time the return pass from Navas on the edge of the area.

Honduras just weren’t able to cope with Spain and never looked like equalising, although half-time substitute Georgie Welcome kept running and running as if he alone believed otherwise. Sergio Mendoza had a torrid time at right-back, given the unwanted task of keeping a lid on Villa, and the midfield just weren’t able to hold on to the ball for any length of time. Switzerland should be more to their liking, though, and it must be said that forward Walter Martinez has my favourite hairdo of the tournament (I’m sure that thought will comfort them after such a comprehensive loss).

Man of the Day: It has to be Villa, though he’s run close by Fabio Coentrao and Jean Beausejour. He underlined his status as the deadliest striker in the world with his stunning first goal and did my fantasy football team a world of good too.

Tomorrow, Groups A and B come to a close. Group A will be a close one but I have a feeling Uruguay will sneak a win over Mexico, and France’s remarkable spiral of self-destruction that saw them refuse to train yesterday will almost certainly end in a hilarious loss to the hosts South Africa. I think that’s what everyone would like to see happen, anyway. In Group B it should be straightforward for South Korea and Argentina, who should not have problems beating Nigeria and Greece respectively. I’ll probably be watching Mexico-Uruguay and Greece-Argentina but may switch games if it looks worth my while. See you then.