Get them on the plane (except you, Stevie)

At 1pm tomorrow (that’ll be Wednesday May 16 for those of you reading from The Future), Roy Hodgson will announce his preliminary 23-man England squad for Euro 2012. This is preliminary in the sense that he’s hoping that Ashley Cole doesn’t get injured in the Champions League final before confirming it, or just in case whichever big lump he brings up front scores an own goal with an overhead kick from his own half in training between now and next week.

Hodgson has indicated today that he’ll give some of the Three Lions’ ‘experienced’ players a chance to “show that they are as good a player as we believe they were in the previous tournaments, when maybe the team has not gone quite as far as we hoped they would go”. Oh, goodie. At least, however, he’s now got Gary Neville whispering into his ear.

I wrote for Goal.com after the appointment yesterday why I think that that’s a great move, with part of it being Neville’s on-record desire to blood youth in bulk this summer. Roy’s quotes today may not be entirely reflective of a total agreement with that (Shock! Horror! England manager does not have squad dictated to him by inexperienced staffer) and perhaps indicate more of a future plan with the ‘stars’ bowing out after Poland and Ukraine. Which may be as good a compromise as we can hope for.

At any rate, though, it looks like we’re going to see exactly the sort of England squad that will be of little benefit, with the big names, whose experience is only that of repeated international failure and therefore not really the sacred commodity that those who fall back on it would have you believe, wheeled out for one last dreary dirge of a quarter-final exit.

Bringing through new ideas and inducting the internationally-inexperienced is going to be the main benefit available to England at Euro 2012. There’s flat-out no chance of them winning – there is, based on what we’ve seen, no possible combination of 23 players who will be good enough to lift the trophy. Which is fine. Getting excited about genuine chances to win tournaments down the line loses its lustre if you blindly assume that there’s an opportunity to win every one just because it’s England.

So if triumph is out of the question, why repeat the same efforts with the same squad? After all, Einstein’s definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result – and Einstein was an incredible football manager.

Instead, Hodgson should be looking to bring in the readiest young stars and give them a taste of the tournament madhouse, working with the right experienced heads who they can best learn from to put them in good stead for when they become the key parts of the World Cup 2014 side.

So here’s the 23 I’d pick. I suspect it will differ significantly from tomorrow’s announcement.

GOALKEEPERS

Joe Hart (Manchester City), John Ruddy (Norwich City), Robert Green (West Ham United)

Hart: Obviously first choice. Source: Emma Norén

Hardly a taxing decision, this. Joe Hart is England’s best goalkeeper by a considerable distance and will be a cornerstone of the side for many years to come. He’ll start, and then Hodgson will pray that nothing happens to him.

The backup options are not massively inspiring. John Ruddy is probably the second name to go down off the back of an excellent season for Norwich, although he has been more of a decent keeper performing at a high personal level rather than a quality stopper with a normal year. There are still the occasional errors and positional concerns about Ruddy but for the most part he has been consistent and earned the opportunity to come along.

This is in contrast to the other available options, which are very much compromises. Robert Green has done fine this year and will probably go despite playing at Championship level. Would you have full confidence in him? No, but better than Scott Carson (greener and playing at arguably similar or lower level for Bursaspor) and Paul Robinson (I mean, come on). Ben Foster’s confirmed that he won’t come out of retirement despite his West Brom manager getting the top job.

Some have called for Jack Butland to come along as the third keeper. That’s 18-year-old Jack Butland, of Birmingham, who has spent the season on loan at Cheltenham Town. Sorry, but no. He might end up brilliant, but it would be pointless for playing time, damaging to his young ego, and frankly insulting to whoever gets ignored in favour of him.

DEFENDERS

Kyle Walker (Tottenham), Micah Richards (Manchester City), Rio Ferdinand (Manchester United), Joleon Lescott (Man City), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Phil Jones (Man Utd), Ashley Cole (Chelsea), Leighton Baines (Everton)

Walker gets the nod at right-back. Source: Alison Pasciuto, Flickr

Right-back is delightfully simple. Kyle Walker has had a thoroughly pleasing breakthrough season, doing well enough at both ends of the pitch, and should probably start. I would have plumped for Micah Richards if you’d asked me a couple of months ago but the City man has fallen somewhat out of favour with Roberto Mancini due to his performances slightly tailing off. He remains, though, a very useful full-back and can be the train to Walker’s jet-ski, offering a different physical option in the position. Glen Johnson is one of the men symptomatic of the Premier League’s hype machine, overrated from one promising season at Portsmouth and continually given more credit than is due at club and international level ever since. I would not bring him.

Left-back is even easier as both Ashley Cole and Leighton Baines have had excellent campaigns once again, and there is absolutely nobody else who comes close to challenging them. Kieran Gibbs needs to stay fit and prove himself over a whole season but should get his chance as second choice in 2012-13 if Cole retires from England duty after Euro 2012.

Centre-back is where things get slightly trickier. First things first, John Terry shouldn’t go. Period. I would go further and quibble with his on-pitch merits, but Iain Macintosh explains perfectly why off-field reasons mean that the Chelsea captain should be kept well away from the England squad and it seems fairly clear that the cons outweigh the pros here. God forbid, of course, if he was included then, against all the odds, they actually did somehow win, and then the court case went sour … I’m not looking to call Terry innocent or guilty, but this is just a snippet of the sort of thing that would dog the entire team all summer if he were picked. And that circus would far from help acclimatise the young players to a normal, professional tournament process.

Anyway. People who’ll actually go. Rio Ferdinand may be struggling with his back a little but is still more than solid and can offer more valuable experience in terms of actually knowing where to stand on the pitch and such basics which often elude England centre-backs. Joleon Lescott, that howler against QPR on Sunday aside, has had an exceptional year, maturing superbly under the influence of Vincent Kompany, and may even be the first-choice central defender now.

Behind them, Gary Cahill would be my first choice for cover. He’s more similar to Ferdinand than any other available centre-back in that he can actually pass the ball if he feels like it. His fitness is the only thing that needs keeping an eye out for, with Phil Jagielka waiting in case he doesn’t make it.

I’d round it off with Phil Jones. Though clearly with some maturing to do, Jones is going to be a big part of England for the foreseeable future and can offer enough now to be useful, so bring him for the experience, and he can cover in defensive midfield too if needs be.

MIDFIELDERS

Scott Parker (Tottenham, captain), Michael Carrick (Man Utd), Paul Scholes (Man Utd), Frank Lampard (Chelsea), Leon Osman (Everton), Ashley Young (Man Utd), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal)

Carrick: England’s best midfielder. Source: Gordon Flood, Flickr

Perhaps the area where I have left my side lightest is in central midfield, especially as I would start games with three in that position. Scott Parker is not quite the first name on the teamsheet but he is perhaps the only tackling midfielder of sufficient quality with a reasonable shout of the squad and will start if fit, and remains a steady holder of the captain’s armband. No reason to quibble here.

He should be playing alongside Michael Carrick, England’s finest in his position this season. He is the closest thing that the country has to Sergio Busquets, the sort of player criminally underrated by a baying public but his sensible passing is of huge value to an international side. An undisputed starter for me, and, if he can do so alongside club team-mate Paul Scholes, so much the better. You might call my hope for the veteran’s inclusion a direct contradiction to my desire to promote youth, but I don’t think it would be. As well as offering sheer passing class, Scholes has the kind of experience that you want in a tournament squad. Having retired in 2004, he missed the worst of this generation’s overhyping, and his cool-headed professionalism is exactly what young stars should be learning from. Whether he can be persuaded out of international retirement for one last summer is of course unknown, but if anyone can, it’s Gary Neville.

England don’t have as much quality as their perceived rivals so occupying space in midfield to maximise their chances will be important, making a central three a good idea. To mix the defensive battle of Parker, Carrick’s deep mechanical distribution and Scholes’ nous and ability to get forward looks the best combination available.

Covering for them should be Frank Lampard. The Chelsea man has declined, no question, but his form since Roberto Di Matteo’s elevation has been much improved from a slightly more stationary deep position and he has put up enough of a fight for his place in the 23. I’d take him over alternatives like James Milner (who’s more of a wide man anyway) and Leon Britton (a brilliant year but Joe Allen is the real quality in the Swansea midfield).

You’ll notice that Steven Gerrard isn’t in the list. No, I’m not calling him a forward either. He’s not on the plane. The hailing of the Liverpool midfielder as the man to single-handedly change a game would not be of much benefit and the truth is that he has declined more steeply than Lampard. In trying to do everything at Anfield, Gerrard has started to do mostly nothing. His positional play has become terrible through years of such one-man-army behaviour and his form and fitness just aren’t all that these days. Gerrard has had his moments but England have bent over backwards to accommodate him for too long and they would do well to break away from that.

He has recently acted more as a forward for England these days than a midfielder, and would in my squad too, but this section looks a little thin if I don’t mention Ashley Young in it. His diving habit is exceedingly irritating, yes, but he has proved his worth as a wide man who tucks in to combine with Rooney before now and should continue that role in Poland and Ukraine.

Providing a substitute option in that area as well as central midfield or anywhere across the front in a pinch should be Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. He has only played a small amount of matches for Arsenal, it’s true, but you needed only to see his superb showing against AC Milan (the leg they won, obviously) to know that he already has what it takes. He wouldn’t start, but his drive and hunger to beat men and get forward, as well as remaining remarkably composed for one so young, make him a legitimately useful option.

Rounding off the midfield is my wild-card pick, Leon Osman of Everton. This was the slot I originally reserved for Milner but, as well as not getting picked for Man City of late, Milner is one of those ‘utility’ players who gets brought because he can fill in anywhere across the midfield, but without being particularly great at any of those positions. Rather than pick a specialism-free effort machine, I’d opt for Osman, who has had his best season yet for the Toffees with nowhere near the recognition merited. He won’t be around internationally for long, but he will work hard as well as possessing valuable crossing and passing ability from a more advanced midfield role.

Missing out here: Aaron Lennon – had a good year, and might be of use to a certain tall striker, but not enough of a goal threat in his own right to be on the right of a 4-3-3.  Gareth Barry – just not all that good, nowhere near as sharp defensively as Parker and not as sensible a passer as Carrick, Scholes or Lampard. Adam Johnson – going to waste at City. Andrew Surman – wouldn’t fit the system. Nathan Dyer – impressing but you couldn’t pick him ahead of Lennon.

FORWARDS

Wayne Rooney (Man Utd), Danny Welbeck (Man Utd), Theo Walcott (Arsenal), Grant Holt (Norwich), Daniel Sturridge (Chelsea)

Get him on the plane, dammit! Source: Jon Candy, Flickr

With few credible options, this part of the squad mostly picks itself. Rooney, despite the two-match suspension, is obvious. If he were Spanish or German, you might be tempted to drop him, but there’s just nobody else near his level or even really in his mould. He should be joined by Danny Welbeck, with whom he has been combining increasingly successfully at Old Trafford over the past months.

Theo Walcott gets the nod on the right of the front three. A striker at heart even if that end goal has been distorted a little too much by Arsenal, he offers more as an all-round forward than Lennon would in his position and has performed more or less acceptably for England over the past couple of years. In current state, Walcott wouldn’t get anywhere near a top international side, but you work with what you have.

Options up front are important. Even Spain have a tall aerial threat to bring on in Fernando Llorente, so of course England should have a physical handful available up front, but Grant Holt is more than just the quintessential big man. His 17  goals in 2011-12 have not just been a case of elbowing defenders out of the way to head home, though there is no question that that is something at which he is most accomplished. Holt is a genuinely great finisher who also happens to be a battering ram. His teamwork is admirable with plenty of running and holding-up to bring people int o play.

The other choices for his role? Andy Carroll? Potential, yes, but two or three great games at the end of an otherwise-monumentally-pants season does not a call-up signal. Carroll may eventually be ready for the international call but doing so after such a tiny burst of form would only be a damaging overreaction. If he went, played, and made one mistake, fans and media would immediately get on his back. Stability will be the key to him getting back on form long-term, and an England place now won’t bring it.

The fifth forward slot (as really is essential for major tournaments) is very hard to choose. Few merit it. Darren Bent won’t realistically be fit enough or he would get it. Bobby Zamora? Not as well as Holt. Peter Crouch? A remnant of the overhyped 2006 team who scored one incredible goal this season but has otherwise been pretty average. No defender is going to fear Crouch.

Jermain Defoe? Not playing enough at Tottenham, doesn’t really suit a 4-3-3 as an out-and-out poacher, and offers less all-round than Welbeck. Danny Graham? Maybe in 2014 if he keeps it up, but at present is behind Welbeck and Defoe. I would go for Daniel Sturridge, not because his form thrills me in any way, but because he will surely be around in the years to come so the experience should help. The Chelsea man also offers the option of a left-footed forward, a very useful variety, as well as an alternative approach on the right flank, where, unlike Walcott or Young, he can cut inside on his preferred foot to shoot.

Anyway, that’s quite enough of my rambling. I’ll leave you with my team to face France.

England (4-3-3): Hart; Walker, Ferdinand, Lescott, Cole; Carrick, Parker (c), Scholes; Welbeck, Holt, Young

Capello’s half-hearted revamp betrays confusion in England setup

Forty-four days since their humbling exit from the World Cup, England begin their preparations for Euro 2012 qualifying tomorrow with a friendly against Hungary hoping for a bright new start, but as Fabio Capello admits he doesn’t know what to do to get the members of that ill-fated jaunt to South Africa to perform for him, there are worrying signs that this is not going to be the complete overhaul of the squad that is required.

Apart from the huge amounts of money they would have had to spend to sack him, the FA must have insisted to Capello that a condition of his retention as England manager would be to drop the ageing players who have let the national team down for many years and bring in a new generation of young players to mould together in anticipation of Poland and Ukraine in two years’ time and ultimately Brazil in four. That, however, does not seem to have really happened. Although pint-sized Arsenal prodigy Jack Wilshere has been fast-tracked into the squad alongside his club team-mate Kieran Gibbs, the bulk of the squad is still made up of the same old players, and the expected starting eleven for tomorrow’s game makes for depressing reading.

The luckiest man to still have a place is John Terry. Never a truly world-class defender, Terry’s brave attitude has complemented well the likes of Ricardo Carvalho and William Gallas at Chelsea over the years, but he is now cripplingly short of pace, a huge deficiency for an international centre-back, and after his rather pathetic attempted mutiny at the World Cup it is very surprising that a man of Capello’s supposed ruthlessness has stuck with him. In two years’ time Terry will be 31. If you think he’s slow now, just imagine how much of a liability he’ll be then. It’s not as if he’s even been one of the most outstanding English centre-backs at club level over the past two seasons or so. Having fully earned their call-ups to the squad, Everton’s Phil Jagielka and Tottenham’s Michael Dawson should be the two to start in that position for the opening qualifier against Bulgaria.

It’s not just Terry who should have been jettisoned, too. While they still have the ability to contribute towards the 2012 campaign, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry all need a wake-up call. They should have been told to go back to their clubs and put in performances to win back their places and prove that they should be trusted again. It’s not as if this is the first opportunity that these players have had to bounce back from a poor summer tournament. A new, harsher approach is required to seriously tackle the complacency that has become rampant in the minds of these players, who have long since succumbed to believing their own hype.

In keeping faith with them for this first new squad, Capello has betrayed his lack of confidence in the younger generation who have been knocking on the door. If he really thought that they were good enough to be brought through into the first team then he should have followed the example of Laurent Blanc. The new France coach, surfing an Obama-like wave of optimism from the fans for simply not being his predecessor, took the clever step of ‘suspending’ every member of his country’s World Cup squad for their friendly against Norway, calling up thirteen uncapped players and all but one under thirty years old. They have been given the initiative in the build-up for their qualification campaign and the disappointments from South Africa have to do the work of winning back their places if they are worth it. That Gerrard, Lampard, Barry and Terry are all set to start against Hungary shows that in reality the call-ups of Wilshere, Gibbs, and the like are little more than a token effort to appease those calling for a more radical overhaul.

There are also questions being asked of Capello’s man-management. This is most apparent in the case of Robert Green. Dropped from the original squad while Terry et al remained, the West Ham keeper was overlooked when first Paul Robinson petulantly retired from international duty because he didn’t want to be a backup, and then when Ben Foster had to pull out through injury. Scott Loach’s emergency promotion from the Under-21 side makes sense, as he is first choice there and at Watford in the Championship, and although he is far from the finished article, he can reasonably be expected to push for a regular place in the squad in a couple of years’ time. That he has been joined by 22-year-old Frankie Fielding, Blackburn’s fourth choice whose last competitive game was against Barnet on loan with Rochdale in League 2, is a pretty severe kick in the teeth for Green. That Green has been so obviously scapegoated for one mistake that arguably was less embarrassing than John Terry’s positioning against Germany and such like seems more than a little off on Capello’s part, as if he thinks that the rest of the squad have chosen to blame Green rather than seriously face up to their own deficiencies, and that he is desperately trying to indulge that childish belief to try and get them to perform by any means. Fielding may have promise but nobody can pretend that he is anywhere near Green’s level. This inconsistency in punishment for the South African failure reflects very badly on Capello in my view.

There are plenty of players in the squad who deserve to be there, forming the core of the upcoming qualifying campaign. Jagielka, Dawson, Joe Hart, Gary Cahill, James Milner, Ashley Young, Adam Johnson, and Bobby Zamora have all earned the right to be where they now are. But there are still glaring omissions (Jack Rodwell and Lee Cattermole are two who stand out) and those who have been called up may feel undermined by not being given the chance to start at Wembley tomorrow. This is not the bright new dawn that England fans have been hoping for, and it seems increasingly clear that Capello may not be capable of ushering it in after all.